No Sustained Spread of Swine Flu Globally

The World Health Organization announced an increase in the number of confirmed cases of swine flu on Saturday, but said there was no evidence of sustained spread in communities outside North America, which would fit the definition of a pandemic.

“At the present time, I would still propose that a pandemic is imminent because we are seeing transmission to other countries,” Dr. Michael J. Ryan, the director of the World Health Organization global alert and response team, said in a teleconference from Geneva. “We have to expect that phase 6 will be reached. We have to hope that it is not.”

Phase 6, the highest level in the organization’s health alert system, is a pandemic. But Dr. Ryan emphasized that the word pandemic describes the geographic spread of a disease, not its severity. There can be a pandemic of a mild disease. The current level, phase 5, means that the disease is spreading in communities — not just within households or in returning travelers — in two countries in one of the World Health Organization’s six regions, in this case the United States and Mexico. To move up to phase 6, community spread would have to occur in at least one other country in another region.

Swine Flu Worldwide Devolopments

Key developments on swine flu outbreaks, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, World Health Organization, and government officials:

Deaths: 16 confirmed in Mexico and one confirmed in U.S., a 23-month-old boy from Mexico who died in Texas.

Confirmed sickened worldwide, 653: 397 in Mexico; 155 in U.S.; 51 in Canada; 13 in Spain and Britain; four each in Germany and New Zealand; two in Israel and France; one each in Switzerland, Austria, Hong Kong, South Korea, Denmark and the Netherlands. Mexico is no longer releasing "suspected" numbers; the number of suspected cases was 2,498 before the tally was halted.

The World Health Organization increases its tally of confirmed swine flu cases around the world to 615 from 365.

Asia has two confirmed cases of swine flu in Hong Kong and South Korea. Hong Kong's leader confirmed the case of a Mexican citizen who developed a fever after arriving in Hong Kong via Shanghai on Thursday. South Korea confirmed the disease in a 51-year-old woman who recently returned from a trip to Mexico. The country has one other suspected case. Other Asian countries also have suspected cases.

U.S. confirmed sickened, by state: 50 in New York; 28 in Texas; 17 in California; 16 in South Carolina; seven in New Jersey; six each in Massachusetts and Maine; four each in Arizona and Delaware; three each in Indiana and Illinois; two each in Kansas, Colorado, Virginia, Michigan and Florida; and one each in Ohio, Connecticut, Kentucky, Missouri, Minnesota, Nebraska and Nevada.

Public health emergency declared in the United States.

Swine Flu May Be Less Potent Than First Feared

The swine flu outbreak that has alarmed the world for a week now appears less ominous, with the virus showing little staying power in the hardest-hit cities and scientists suggesting it lacks the genetic fortitude of past killer bugs.

President Barack Obama even voiced hope Friday that it may turn out to be no more harmful than the average seasonal flu.

In New York City, which has the most confirmed swine flu cases in the U.S. with 49, swine flu has not spread far beyond cases linked to one Catholic school. In Mexico, the epicenter of the outbreak, very few relatives of flu victims seem to have caught it.

A flu expert said he sees no reason to believe the virus is particularly lethal. And a federal scientist said the germ's genetic makeup lacks some traits seen in the deadly 1918 flu pandemic strain and the more recent killer bird flu.

Still, it was too soon to be certain what the swine flu virus will do. Experts say the only wise course is to prepare for the worst. But in a world that's been rattled by the specter of a global pandemic, glimmers of hope were more than welcome Friday.